[clug] ACM Technews article - Oracle predictions in a mature market

Steve Jenkin sjenkin at pcug.org.au
Thu Apr 10 14:57:54 EST 2003

On Thu, 10 Apr 2003 14:25, Tim Potter wrote:
> On Thu, Apr 10, 2003 at 02:21:00PM +1000, Steve Jenkin wrote:
> > This prediction is obviously biased (propoganda?), but it raises two very
> > important points:
> > - the computing industry is maturing and
> > - in the next ten years there will be very significant shakeouts/changes
> > in _every_ aspect of computing - hardware, operating systems, venders and
> > IT employment
> You can say that about any 10 year period in the computing industry.
> Ten years is a long time...

I've been doing IT for 30 years...  Ten years doesnt seem long.
Things haven't been all that different, so far. [I've seen VM 'invented' 4-6 

By 2010 the last generation of silicon chips will be built [being designed 
now], [expect a doubling of perf. every 7-10 yrs, not 12-18mths]
current Microsoft operating systems [server and desktop] will be gone or 
The use of 'appliances' will be ubitquitous - and only orgs of 1,,000+ will 
have in-house IT many staff.

'the internet' is already ubitquitous - the law makers & vested interets (eg 
copyright) are just catching up and trying to limit its democratic, 
elgalitarian and chaotic characteristics.

IT has hit a maturation point, much the same as railways did when they adopted 
'standard guage'.  Software vendors & consumers only want a _single_ 
operating interface, ie they want "It just works".

There are a couple of really new things yet to arrive [like GIS], but changes 
such as quantum or bio- computers will be like moving from steam to 
diesel/electric locomotives [or propellor to jet]:  Very big changes inside 
the industry, but no real change to consumers - only better-cheaper-faster 

> Tim.

Thanks for the reply!

Steve Jenkin
PO Box 48, Kippax ACT 2615 
(m) 0412 786 915

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