'tech trends (USA)' article - mentions Linux

[Steve Jenkin]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A35421-2002Oct2.html

Here are some snippets and my comments [[like this]]...

cheers
sj
===


So it goes for Silicon Valley companies as the tech sector tries to
figure out how to eke out a living in times of little or no growth.

[[Mature market - all the assumptions of unlimited growth now fail]]

Unfortunately for Silicon Valley, nobody seems to see a "next big thing"
on the horizon. "There isn't a compelling reason why corporate America
has to lockstep replace its technology," said Gary Beach, group
publisher of CIO magazine.

[[Yep - and a better question, 'What's changed ON THE DESKTOP since
1994??' Not a lot...]]

For Silicon Valley chief executives, the quarterly report conference
call now includes a new routine: the one where you blame low tech
spending for your company's latest lousy numbers.

[[THe usual management response 'not my fault, just keep paying those
options...']]

In the past 15 years, according to research firm Gartner Inc., tech
spending has increased an average of about 15 percent per year; in 1999
and 2000, the jump grew to more like 30 percent. Last year, corporate
tech buyers said they were increasing their information  technology
budgets only 1.5 percent.

[[A NUMBER!!!  Y2K + .com 'bust' == 30% in 2000.  Recession & 'catch-up'
over the last couple of years ==1.5%.  Is that the growth we should
expect to see, for vendor sales, NOT in networking or services]]

While there's much speculation about when a turnaround might begin,
there isn't a lot of hope in some circles.

[[Justifiably.  Nobody has a good model as to _why_, so they cant
answer, _when_]]

Surveys of chief information officers from different research firms
predict increases from 3 to 8 percent for 2003 corporate tech budgets.

[[ THIS IS GOOD NEWS.  I would hope it is for disk storage, services &
training - and not a lot new hardware, maybe upgrades.  New projects???
No idea]]

Analysts and Silicon Valley types said they are seeing at least one
trend emerging as companies try to reduce tech budgets. Companies are
spending less on proprietary  technologies that may work better at
certain tasks but that may not play well with other technologies.

[[The death of the 'Microsoft ONLY' environment?]

The increasing popularity of the Linux operating system is one example.
The free operating system has become a standard on servers and is
starting to appear on desktop PCs as well -- including in a new line of
$199 PCs available at Wal-Mart.

[[WOW!  Linux on the desktop is supposedly ~2% in USA.  30% for 'Network
Op Sys' or MS-server replacement [SAMBA?].  Grew from 7%->30% in 5
years. 2.5yr doubling??  More 'death of MS servers...']]

Outsourcing is "our biggest growth engine today," said Juergen Rottler,
deputy head of HP's consulting and services business. "There's more
demand than we can satisfy in that space."

[[Oh boy, 'outsourcing' is getting a good rap?!  EDS share price down
from $72 in Mar-02 to $10 in OCt-02 [I'm told]  COuld be good or bad... 
NOT a panacea]]

-- 
--------
Steve Jenkin, Unix Sys Admin
PO Box 48, Kippax, ACT 2615
0412 786 915