Gartner Group says don't deploy NT 5.0 until the end of 2000

John D. Blair jdblair at
Mon Jul 6 13:48:34 GMT 1998

This is from a recent GartnerFlash.  A lot of IT professionals listen to
the Gartner Group's recommendations.  This latest analysis is a very
good thing for non-microsoft server solutions, including Samba.  The
best part is the suggestion that people planning to use Active Directory
or Zero Admin Windows wait until well into 2001 before making large
deployments.  This is a HUGE "window" of opportunity.


> Microsoft Misses Major NT 5.0 Commitment
> EVENT: On 30 June 1998, Microsoft announced the
> delay of the second beta of NT 5 until "sometime
> during the summer." In conjunction, Microsoft
> announced a previously unplanned beta three
> program.
> ANALYSIS: The beta software for NT 5 released at
> Microsoft's Windows deployment conference this week
> in San Jose, Calif. is an interim release of beta one.
> We expect Microsoft will release a beta version of NT
> 5 marketed as "beta two" in 3Q98 (0.7 probability);
> however, this beta should not be considered feature-
> complete since Microsoft acknowledges that code may
> be present for some features (e.g., Terminal Server)
> that is not stable for testing purposes The fully
> functional, feature-complete beta of NT 5 that beta two
> was promised to be will now become beta three. We
> expect beta three by 2Q99 (0.7 probability).
> RECOMMENDATION: Enterprises waiting on NT 5
> should:
> -Limit testing efforts with beta one and beta two.
>  Beta three will be made more widely available and
>  will provide a test-worthy, working, feature-
>  complete version of NT 5.
> -Not expect to see a shipping version NT 5 available
>  until the first half of 2000. We have downgraded
>  our expectation for general availability of a
>  reasonably stable, feature-complete release of NT
>  5 until at least the first half of 2000 (0.7 probability).
> -Not plan on NT 5 production deployments until at
>  least year-end 2000. We reiterate our
>  recommendation that all NT 5 deployments wait at
>  least until the first major working service pack is
>  released, expected six to nine months after general
>  availability of NT 5. Larger deployments utilizing
>  Active Directory or Zero Administration Windows
>  should wait 12 to 18 months after the service pack,
>  i.e., well into 2001.
> With the delay in NT 5, we expect Microsoft to
> aggressively push other revenue-generating products.
> Enterprises should:
> -Ignore pressure from Microsoft that an upgrade to
>  NT 4 positions an organization for an easier
>  upgrade to NT 5
> -Delay deployments of NT 4 until 1999 to obtain
>  expected pricing discounts and promotions from
>  Microsoft
> SERVICES: Local Area Networking and NT Strategies
> ANALYSTS: Neil MacDonald, Joe Barkan and Michael
> Gartenberg

John D. Blair                                 jdblair at
Software Engineer, Cobalt Microserver

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