[clug] [OT] Broadband clangers

[Gary Woodman]

--- On Thu, 12/8/10, Francis Markham <fmarkham at gmail.com> wrote:

> I think a close reading of the top and bottom three parties
> on this list
> (and the preference of the Lib/Nats over the ALP) give some
> idea about
> Family First's priorities and perceived alliances.

While that is true enough, there is a less doctrinal explanation.

The way voting in the Senate works, the result in Victoria will be three senators from the one, and two senators from the other of the old parties (to be momentarily on topic, Conroy is one of these). Functioning as designed of course, their grip on power has scarcely loosened in over a hundred years.

The sixth Senate position is up for grabs, and could possibly go to Labor or Liberal/National, either Julian McGauran or Anthony Thow, but enough voters are dissatisfied with both of those parties that an outsider may well win a quota.

Which is what happened in 2004, when Steve Fielding was elected with less than 2% of first preference votes. Not widely known is that this was a deliberate policy of the ALP, which reneged on a preference deal and preferenced Family First before the Greens, thus denying the Greens, with nearly 7 times the number of first preference votes, a place in the Senate (and firmly cementing the view that Labor is not "less worse").

So I am pretty sure the Greens will be doing the same, putting Family First last. In Victoria, this is figuratively a battle to the death between Family First and the Greens. And sure enough, at http://www.aec.gov.au/election/vic/gvt.htm we can see the Greens put Family First almost last, barely preceding the lunatic fringe of One Nation, Climate Skeptics, and the Citizens Electoral Council. The rest of the tickets are split pretty evenly, so this is going to be a very close tussle.

And to lurch even further off topic, I appreciate Francis posting the Family First ticket, but the occupations of its candidates might provide a better insight into Family First:
C  	FIELDING, Steven [previous senator]  	Family First  	Federal Senator  	
C 	PLUMRIDGE, Gary 	Family First 	Property Developer 	 
C 	BOWN SEELEY, Ann Edith 	Family First 	Real Estate Agent
http://aec.gov.au/election/vic/index.htm#sen

By comparison, youse mob in the ACT have it easy! May I remind you that you have a unique opportunity to change the Senate instantly: new Senators from the States won't take their place until 1 July 2011, but if Lin Hatfield Dodds beats Gary Humphries, she will take his place as soon as Parliament resumes. 

If you think things are going swimmingly, do whatever you like. But for the best chance of real scrutiny and positive change, all you need to do is vote Green above the line, or preference Hatfield Dodds before Humphries below the line.

Good luck!
Gary (ex Canberran and campaign wonk)