[clug] ACM Technews article - Oracle predictions in a mature market

Steve Jenkin sjenkin at pcug.org.au
Thu Apr 10 14:21:00 EST 2003


This prediction is obviously biased (propoganda?), but it raises two very
important points:
- the computing industry is maturing and
- in the next ten years there will be very significant shakeouts/changes in
_every_ aspect of computing - hardware, operating systems, venders and IT


# "Larry Ellison's Sober Vision"
Wall Street Journal (04/08/03) P. B1; Mangalindan, Mylene; Tam, Pui-Wing

Oracle CEO Larry Ellison believes the computer industry has reached the
 limits of its growth, and predicts the failure of 1,000 tech companies
 thanks to consolidation and increasing standardization of products.

He expects the biotechnology sector to come to the fore; tech startup numbers
will dwindle, while the small group of vendors that comes out on top will
dominate product development.

These winners will include Oracle, Microsoft, IBM, Amazon.com, Dell Computer,
Yahoo!, SAP, Intel, and eBay.

Ariba, Commerce One, Siebel Systems, and BEA Systems are among the companies
Ellison expects to fail. He argues that such firms will die because they
follow a suicidal path of developing increasingly complicated "solutions"
before identifying problems, and then try to foist these overly complex
products on customers.

Ellison anticipates falling prices thanks to the emergence of cheaper
Linux-based computers, increased offshore outsourcing of software
development, and companies growing in size due to industry maturation. He
believes customers will be the primary beneficiaries of these trends, because
tech companies will have to offer simpler, more innovative products and
services in order to stay afloat.

Many people slam Ellison's gloomy forecast: Netscape co-founder Marc
Andreessen observes that, historically, large companies have never fostered
innovation. And though many agree that an industry shakeout is likely, they
doubt that industry growth is ending--some call Ellison's dire warnings an
overreaction to the tech downturn.
Steve Jenkin
PO Box 48, Kippax ACT 2615
(m) 0412 786 915

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